AI and the Future of Work

AI is set to significantly change employment — but the nature and extent of that change is genuinely uncertain. Here is what the evidence suggests.

What research says

Multiple studies suggest that AI is more likely to automate specific tasks within jobs than eliminate jobs entirely. A 2023 Goldman Sachs analysis estimated that AI could expose around 300 million full-time jobs globally to automation — but also noted that historical technological transitions have typically created new jobs while displacing old ones.

Which skills are more AI-resistant?

Tasks involving physical presence, human relationship, creative synthesis, and complex ethical judgement are harder to automate. Routine cognitive tasks — processing forms, writing standard documents, analysing structured data — are more susceptible. Interestingly, some high-skill knowledge work is more exposed than some lower-skill physical work.

The New Zealand picture

For Aotearoa specifically, sectors like professional services, public administration, and finance have significant AI exposure. Agriculture, construction, and care work are less exposed. Regional economies and communities that depend heavily on exposed sectors may face concentrated impacts.

What this means for school students

The most AI-resistant skills — critical thinking, creativity, communication, empathy, ethical reasoning, and the ability to work with and direct AI tools — are worth developing. Subject knowledge remains important, but knowing how to use and question AI will increasingly be as important as the content itself.

The most useful question about AI and employment is not whether it will change work — it will — but how to develop skills that remain valuable as it does.